AUSTRALIA'S top diplomats consider our neighbourhood deeply troubled. They describe China's leadership as ''nervous, paranoid and uncertain'' but "running rings'' around Japan. Thailand is unstable, the Philippines a "basket case" and East Timor a "burden".
The candid judgments of some of Australia's most senior and experienced diplomats are contained in the United States' record of the secret Australia- US political-military talks held between senior officials of both countries in Canberra in October 2008.
Foreign Affairs Department deputy secretary David Richie warned that Australia faced a ''troubled neighbourhood … including an increase in illegal immigration from Indonesia … continuing political instability in Thailand; the 'basket case' of the Philippines; the continuing 'burden' of providing security and development assistance to East Timor; problems of bad governance in many of the Pacific Island states''.
The US record of the secret discussions, chaired by Mr Richie and US assistant secretary of state Mark Kimmitt, has been provided exclusively to The Age by WikiLeaks.
During the exchange, the department's first assistant secretary for north Asia, Graham Fletcher, gave a broad political overview of China.
"The elite, led by Hu Jintao, likely would retain control until 2012, when Hu would turn over the reins to one of his hand-picked successors,'' Mr Fletcher forecast. "While China might look impressive externally, its internal politics were characterised by nervousness, paranoia and uncertainty. Nonetheless, there were no major challenges to the ruling elite in the near term.''
A senior US defence official for east Asia, David Sedney, said that the US analysis matched Australia's view that there was no threat to China's rulers.
"[Sedney] noted that the Chinese leadership was absorbed with domestic stability, and, while China had achieved success in achieving economic and political stability, there were cracks in the facade.''
The department's then senior official for south-east Asia, Peter Woolcott, described the political situation in many countries in Australia's neighbourhood as ''messy'', and cited "significant problems in the Philippines, Thailand, Malaysia, Vietnam and Burma''.
"The situation in Indonesia - Australia's most important regional partner - was 'as good as it gets','' Mr Woolcott said. "[President] Yudhoyono … whom Australia wanted to see re-elected, had provided first class co-operation on counterterrorism.''
Mr Woolcott described China's diplomatic efforts in south-east Asia as ''impressive'', adding that "while most countries wanted a US presence as a hedge, they were comfortable with China's approach''.
''Japan's presence, by contrast, hardly registered, in part because it declined to invest political resources, such as visits by senior officials,'' Mr Woolcott said. At this point Mr Fletcher interjected, saying the Chinese were ''running rings around Japan'' in south-east Asia.
Mr Ritchie suggested that Japan was hampered by the legacy of the Second World War.
Australian Defence Department deputy secretary Stephen Merchant agreed, observing that ''Japan lacked the capacity to deliver, despite having some forward-leaning senior officials''.
Dissatisfaction with Japan's performance also featured in discussions between US under-secretary of state Bill Burns and Department of Foreign Affairs secretary Michael L'Estrange in Canberra in April 2009.
The leaked US record of the discussion notes Mr L'Estrange ''expressed frustration at the difficulties Australia had experienced getting Japan to co-operate on counterterrorism'' partly because of ''the constant turnover of ministers in Japan''.
But when both Mr Burns and Mr L'Estrange were joined by Japanese deputy foreign minister Kenchiro Sasae at a later meeting, both avoided criticism of Japanese diplomacy while the Australian and Japanese representatives ''lauded'' President Barack Obama's stewardship of the war in Afghanistan.
All sides agreed that control of the Pakistan-Afghan border was the key. In a comment that reflected analysis from the Office of National Assessments, Mr L'Estrange said Pakistan's Inter-Services Intelligence Agency was ''a complex hydra that was playing both ends against the middle''.